How to analyze a tipster
How to analyze a tipster
When choosing a tipster, it is important to analyze their profile in detail and see their way of working, in order, among other things, to avoid surprises. Variables such as the monthly units, the yield, the maximum draw down, their behavior both in good and bad streaks are important in this analysis... In short, we must make a complete breakdown of their work to check if it adapts to our way of working. bet, schedule, banking, etc.
That is why in this article we are going to explain how to analyze the statistics of a tipster on our platform.
Breaking down a tipster profile on TipsterLand
Let's build on this profile from the following example:
They are the showcase of a Tipster, they are made up of the score, yield, benefit, bets, win rate and average stake. It is very poor information to make a detailed analysis, but it is worth it to get a general idea. They can be decisive in ruling out a Tipster, for example, if he is very negative over a long period of time, but they are not worth deciding on him without looking at the rest of the information.
Premium or free profile
In Tipsterland it is important to review the free tipster in great detail. Currently we do not have a reliable source of quotas, so it is the users themselves who assign them, and this can be a problem if it is not studied carefully.
Although we have a great reporting system, not all users report inconsistencies, which can result in manipulated or cheating profiles. We do not recommend following Tipsters free with few followers or with little history on Tipsterland, and not before reviewing their work or monitoring their tips for a few days or weeks.
In the case of a premium Tipster, this problem does not arise since users who have paid the respective subscriptions tend to notify us of any errors immediately. These errors are quickly corrected and if they are repeat offenders, the Tipster can be reprimanded or expelled from the platform. These are the profiles that we take most seriously as they represent the image of Tipsterland.
The statistics in detail
Once we have decided which Tipster we want to analyse, it is time to get down to work and review their profile data by data. We will start with your statistics by months.
Accumulated profit/yield and drawdown
It is the first thing we find in the “Stats” tab of the tipster profile, it is a section similar to the following:
First, we have the evolution of units and yield over time, followed by the 3 biggest drawdowns on his serve.
As for the graphs of accumulated profit and yield, we can see that the purple line, the units, rise more or less continuously, with the yield being a little more volatile. Although a professional bettor can take some references here, they are too complex to explain in a post, and they are not essential to make a decision, unless the units graph is extremely volatile, which would indicate that we are in front of a service with excessive risk. If this were so, we should seriously consider whether we want to hire him.
The drawdown is the largest number of units lost between one moment and another of a service. That is, from a point A to a point B, we choose the one with the most negative units of difference:
In this example screenshot we would have 2 drawdowns, so that you can get a clearer idea of what it means.
With these data we can know the maximum number of units that has been lost in a losing streak, and in this way, adapt our unit so that it does not exceed 100% of our capital in the event of a similar situation being repeated. That is, if the largest drawdown is 12 units, we cannot allocate a unit greater than 8.33% of our bankroll, because there is the possibility of ending up in bankruptcy. In fact, in that case, we would opt for 5% per unit in case of following this service exclusively, so that we can take advantage of its full potential without putting too many units at risk.
Analysis of statistics by channels
If the tipster that we are going to analyze has several channels, we can do this same analysis for said channel, as well as for the global result of all its channels. Everything will depend on the choice of channels that we want to make when following said service.
If we are going to follow all its channels we will mark “All channels” in the list, if we are only going to choose one of them, we will have to select it in the drop-down menu. Once we have selected what interests us, we will continue with the analysis.
Analysis of statistics by months
As we can see from this table, except for July, which could be an end-of-month addition, and November, which is currently ongoing, their number of monthly forecasts is quite high. There are those who prefer tipsters with a large volume of tips, but this can harm their quality, due to the lack of analysis time. In this case, an exception could be made, since it has a fairly high yield and also predicts table tennis, a sport in which there are many matches daily.
We find ourselves with a profile with 5 months forecast and a total of 715 bets, an amount, although “fair”, enough to analyze a Tipster. It is more conservative and appropriate, to avoid surprises, to wait for said Tipster to accumulate at least 600 forecasts and 5 forecast months, something that we do see in this case.
The average stake is also important, we discourage any profile whose average stake varies considerably between months. It does not occur in this case, since its variation is minimal, it always moves between the range 0.8 and 1. However, you can see profiles with an average stake of 7 one month and 2 the next, and that is a direct discard .
The win rate is perhaps less important. It is the success rate that said Tipster has, but it is not a decisive factor since this data can be lower if its average quota is high and higher if it is low, and in case of being a poor percentage, it can already be observed in the yield and units, because it has a direct impact on them.
On the yield we see an interesting return, although both in the first month (July) and in the last (November) they are somewhat poor. The reason for this is that the first month was incorporated at the end of it and there is not enough sample to objectively analyze it, and November is currently in progress, still having the opportunity to rescue it. Despite these two months, we can see that the rest of them have an average yield of approximately 16%, a particularly striking percentage.
From Tipsterland we advise you to follow the following hiring criteria in profiles that have at least 5 months forecast and 600 forecasts:
· Liquid markets: Minimum 7% yield
Non-liquid markets: Minimum 10% yield
It is a personal factor of each one that adapts with experience, but we do not recommend hiring Tipsters with less than these %, since they would not be sufficiently profitable for our investment. Especially in the second case, in non-liquid markets, where odds drops and account closures by bookmakers occur more frequently than in the first.
Analysis of statistics by moment
In this profile we find 606 pre-match bets and 109 live bets. These figures serve as a guide to know the number of tips you send at any time and the results of them. We personally discourage profiles whose number of live tips is above 60%, except in exceptional cases. Traceability can be more complicated in such a case.
Also mention that it is easier to detect free tipsters who manipulate their statistics in pre-match than live, so be very careful with those who send a large number of tips live.
Analysis of statistics by sport
This section is much more important than the previous one, it indicates in which sports the Tipster predicts. We discourage any profile that predicts more than 1 sport. The reason? The specialization, almost nobody can be an expert in several leagues of several sports, and in most of the Tipsters that we have analyzed, which sent more than one sport, their statistics have always left something to be desired. There is always a sport in which said Tipster obtains better performance than in the rest, and in order to offer a good service, it is preferable that he focuses on it to obtain even better results.
Statistical analysis by bookie
If you are a novice bettor, that is, you have not been betting for too long and your experience is not yet great enough, we advise against following tipsters who send bets to more than 2 bookmakers. It is very complicated to have an active account at all times in several bookmakers, and you have to replace them or incorporate them into demands to continue following the service at the same odds.
In this case we find a service that sends more than 90% of predictions in the same house, bet365.
Analysis of statistics by stake
This is one of the most important points when choosing a Tipster. It is your use of the stake and the results for each "step" or row. Our recommendation is to rule out tipsters who:
- Have more than 3 rows with negative results
- Your profit comes mostly from high stakes, for example, 4 successful stake 10 picks offer you 30 units, but at low stakes (1-5) you have no profit or losses
- To use all possible steps or rows. It has been shown that a tipster who sends stakes from 1 to 10 has lower profitability and is more unstable than another who has less variability.
- That the average stake in the high stakes is very low (eg: @1.4) and in low stakes it has a high average (eg: @2). It is often used to manipulate short-term results, secure units with high stakes at low odds, and send low stakes to high odds to increase the average stake and the number of picks.
We recommend following tipsters with a variability no greater than that of the profile shown in the image, from 0.0 to 4.5, or even flat stakes, regardless of whether all your tips are stakes 1 or 10.
Analysis of statistics by quota
It is not the most important information for the analysis, but it gives us some tips that can be useful to us. We do not recommend following Tipsters with roughly even average odds (@firstname.lastname@example.org) who have a lot of tips at +@20 odds. This would mean that said tipster is used to doing “binadas”, that is, to betting at disproportionate odds to try his luck and boost his profile. It is a bad practice that does not inspire us any kind of confidence.
A professional profile should look like the one in the photo above, except for some specific markets such as horses where the average odds are high. The average stake must be lower than the quota is higher, and the vast majority of forecasts must be found in odds @email@example.com.
The liquidity of the markets
This analysis is much more complex, and consists of analyzing the maximum that allows us to bet on the markets that said Tipster sends. It is information that does not appear in the statistics, and that requires extensive experience to know how to analyze, if we want to do such an analysis before hiring the forecaster in question.
To do this we can select, in the bookmaker or bookmakers that we are going to use, a bet similar to some past history of the tipster. Eg: If the tipster usually sends Over goals in the Spanish first division, we choose several matches that are available to bet and we put a huge amount, like €9999999. Sometimes the bookmaker will modify this amount with the maximum that the market allows. If this is not the case, we will have to take risks using intuition or reducing the amount until said bet is made. It is a very complex and risky practice, but there are no other alternatives either.
Once we have that information, we take an average of the maximum bet limits and write it down as the maximum stake that we can assign. In this way we will avoid surprises such as a bet not allowing us to complete our stake.
It is important to enter the tipster's channel to check what their publication hours are. In this way we will know if it adapts to our schedules, work, sleep...
Obviously we are not going to hire a tipster who sends tips at dawn in our respective countries, nor during business hours if we do not have the possibility of placing the bet. Bets are just another job, and as such, you have to reserve a time for them.
We hope this article has given you an idea of how to analyze a tipster on our platform. However, it is a basic guide and there is information in it that is subjective, and although the base is usually common among all bettors, each one performs analysis with personal conditions and with their experience.
If you have any questions, you can write to us at firstname.lastname@example.org and we will solve it for you, being likely to be added to this analysis if we consider it important.